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07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have an opportunity to gain some ground on the division-leading Detroit Tigers when the American League Central rivals begin a key three-game series tonight at the Metrodome.
The Twins presently trail the first-place Tigers by three games in the standings, with the hard-charging Chicago White Sox a half-game in front of Minnesota for second.
Minnesota will be entering this evening's clash with some momentum after taking the final two tests of a three-game series at Kansas City earlier this week. In Wednesday's rubber match, Glen Perkins threw seven effective innings and Michael Cuddyer homered and knocked in two runs to lead the way in a 5-1 triumph over the Royals.
Perkins (4-4) scattered 10 hits and allowed just one run to help the Twins to their fifth victory in their past seven games. The club completed a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record.
"We're starting to play a little better," first baseman Justin Morneau told the team's official site afterward. "We could still hit better with runners in scoring position, but we're winning ballgames. We're finding a way to get it done, and a lot of that has to do with the pitching, which has been great on this road trip."
Morneau left Wednesday's contest in the seventh inning with a sore left groin but is expected to be in the lineup tonight. Shortstop Nick Punto, who was also removed in the seventh due to tightness in his lower back, is likely to be available as well.
Joe Mauer went 3-for-3 with an RBI single in Wednesday's win to raise his major league-leading average to .392. The All-Star catcher is batting a scorching .458 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in just 24 games at the Metrodome this season.
Tonight's matchup begins a nine-game homestand for Minnesota, whose 24-15 record at the Metrodome ranks among the best home marks in baseball. The team also gets to send out one of baseball's top winners in 2009 to the mound for this series opener, with Kevin Slowey ready to take aim at his 11th victory of the season.
Slowey carries an impressive 10-3 record into this evening's game, but two of those losses have come in his last four starts. The right-hander matched his shortest outing of the year in Sunday's 5-3 loss at St. Louis, where he was tagged for five runs and served up a pair of homers before being yanked after three innings.
A return home should benefit the 25-year-old, since he's 8-0 in nine Metrodome starts this season and allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five appearances at his home park. One of those starts came against the Tigers on May 12, with Slowey firing six innings of one-run ball in a 6-2 win.
In four career encounters with Detroit, Slowey is 3-0 with a 4.57 earned run average.
The Tigers resume a nine-game road trip tonight and haven't fared too well thus far on the trek. After dropping two of three to the Houston Astros last weekend, Detroit only managed one win in its recent three-game set with the AL West cellar-dwelling Oakland Athletics.
Detroit's bats were stymied by the A's Dallas Braden in Wednesday's 5-1 defeat, with the left-hander limiting the Tigers to a run and five hits over the first seven innings.
"He went in and out, changed speeds," said Detroit manager Jim Leyland of Braden. "He pitched very well."
The Tigers were without third baseman Brandon Inge, the team's leader in RBI (52) and co-leader in home runs (18). The converted catcher sat out because of a sore left knee, but is expected to play tonight.
Detroit starter Justin Verlander (8-4) permitted four runs on a pair of homers in his six-inning stint to suffer the loss.
Rookie Luke French gets an audition for the fifth spot in the Tigers rotation in tonight's test. The young left-hander, an eighth-round selection by Detroit in the 2004 draft, earned a shot by going 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Toledo.
French did appear in two games as a reliever for Detroit in mid-May and tossed three scoreless innings. The 23-year-old has been sharp lately for the Mud Hens, having surrendered just four runs and racking up 26 strikeouts in 23 innings over his past three starts.
Dontrelle Willis had been serving as the Tigers' fifth starter before being placed on the disabled list last month to work out a lingering anxiety disorder. He was then replaced by Alfredo Figaro, who was bombed for eight runs (7 earned) in six innings of a loss at Houston on Sunday.
The Twins swept a three-game series from Detroit at the Metrodome between May 12-14 and is 4-1 against the Tigers this season. Minnesota has also taken 10 of the past 14 overall meetings between the divisional foes.
<< Santana returns to face Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have been able to
rebound from a rough beginning to the season. The team is hoping one of its
most talented pitchers will be able to do the same in tonight's matchup with
the Baltimore Orio
<< Rays ride hot streak into Arlington
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays take their hot streak into the Lone
Star State, where the defending American League champions will start up an
intriguing three-game series with the Texas Rangers this evening.
With wins in 15 of their
<< Cardinals send Pineiro to hill in Cincinnati
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joel Pineiro hopes for some run support tonight when the
St. Louis Cardinals begin a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds at Great
American Ball Park.
Pineiro lost for the ninth time in his last 11 starts on Sun
<< King Felix goes for Mariners at Fenway
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners enter the final leg of a challenging
road trip with tonight's opener of a three-game series with the American
League East-leading Boston Red Sox from Fenway Park.
The surprising Mariners have acquitte
Rockies to open homestand with last-place Diamondbacks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies are back home after a lengthy road
trip and will open a three-game series tonight against the National League
West-rival Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field.
Colorado went 5-4 on a nine-game road swing
Federer reaches record seventh straight Wimbledon final >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five-time champion Roger Federer
defeated Tommy Haas in Friday's men's semifinal action at Wimbledon. The
iconic Federer will now appear in a men's record seventh straight Wimbledon
final on Sunday.
Manny set to return as Dodgers visit Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - He won't have the home crowd on his side until after the
All-Star break, but Los Angeles Dodgers star left fielder Manny Ramirez
probably doesn't mind, since he is finally done serving his 50-game suspension
for violating the
Rookie aims for repeat in Giants' tilt with Astros >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Sadowski will shoot for an encore performance tonight
for the NL Wild Card-leading San Francisco Giants, who will open a 10-game
homestand with the first of three consecutive meetings versus the Houston
Astros at AT&
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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